Ukraine: After the Fallout

Key Findings 

• Bonds among Europeans have strengthened after the clash between Presidents Trump and Zelenskyy in the Oval Office but those between Europe and the United States have weakened considerably. Most Europeans see each other as allies and most Americans still see Europeans as allies but fewer than half of Brits and only a quarter of the French and Germans see the US as an ally.
• Yet Americans and Europeans are in greater agreement than may appear. Overwhelming majorities of Europeans and Americans (including among US Republicans) agree that Russia is to blame for the conflict and that Vladimir Putin is a dictator. Americans and Europeans also agree that defending Ukraine’s sovereignty is important for their own country. That is also true of Republicans in the US.
• Europeans are worried about the spread of war in Europe. Two-thirds of Britons, Poles and majorities of Americans, French and Germans think that it is likely that Russia will try to invade other European countries if it succeeds in capturing Ukrainian territory. Fewer than a third of Europeans and Americans think Russia’s word can be trusted on a cease-fire.
• Sizeable majorities of Brits, Poles, French and Germans back continued European support for Ukraine even as the US steps away. Majorities of Brits and pluralities of Americans, Germans and French would support sending troops to Ukraine to secure a peace deal, although sizeable blocs in each country (aside from the UK), as well as a majority of Poles, disagree.
• National analysis in each country reveals varying degrees of polarization on Ukraine depending on party affiliation. Germany emerges as the most polarized on Ukraine, with supporters of the AfD out of step with the rest of the country in a way that is not true for Reform voters in the UK or for voters of Konfederacja in Poland or the National Rally in France.
• US Republicans express divergent opinions from Democrats and from Americans overall mostly when it comes to questions regarding the character of Donald Trump as a leader in this war and less about the fundamentals of the conflict, who is to blame and how the war might be ended. Our analysis suggests that the voter coalition that brought him to the White House may not be fully behind him on Ukraine.

Country summaries

You can find a comprehensive summary of key findings across 5 countries in the following links: